When the World’s Wealthiest Man Says a Really Silly Thing

Monday, February 13, 2012 by Eric Harding

There is nothing like throwing over 6,000 years of history out the window with one statement. I call that silly. It’s even sillier when a man with the wealth of Warren Buffett says it, as he recently called physical gold a “valueless asset”. The UK Telegraph picked up the comment in reporting that Fortune Magazine had interviewed Mr. Buffett on this subject. Also from the UK Telegraph article, their writer Emma Wall wrote the following last Friday:

“Buffett's attack comes as private bank Coutts predicts that the gold price will hit "new highs" by the end of 2012. In a report from the bank, that counts the Queen among its clients, gold is confirmed as a "key asset in investment portfolios".  

Hmmm….. I think it is fair to say that the Queen of England knows her history. Also, one of the wealthiest men the world has ever known Mayer Amschel Rothschild, who was named by Forbes magazine as “the founding father of international finance” said “Wealthy men have always collected rare coins”. He probably knew his history too. Rothschild said that back when coins had value and were primarily physical gold or silver. Guess what modern founders of finance, like Richard Fisher, the President of the Dallas branch of the Federal Reserve are doing with their own money – investing in gold! Fisher’s disclosure of investment was recently released by the Federal Reserve as well as the holdings of the other Fed branch presidents. Another hmmm….. If the Fed presidents have so much faith in paper money, then why does Fisher own more than $1 million in gold and another $50,000 in platinum?

Back to Warren Buffett. If he thinks that gold is a “valueless asset”, then why did he say this on 8/19/09: “Unchecked greenback emissions will certainly cause the purchasing power of currency to melt.”? Combine that with his firm Berkshire Hathaway’s investments in silver a decade ago (did he think that the other monetary metal was also a “valueless asset”?) and an investor would have to conclude that Warren likes to speak out of both sides of his mouth. Sorry Warren, I appreciate your head-fake, but I’m going to continue to measure my stack of gold coins. I don’t know what your agenda was with your comment from last week, but I know that history is on my side. I’m buying more physical gold from Lear Capital!

Lear Capital: Is Gold Set To Drop Like a Rock or Rise Like a Rocket?

Monday, August 15, 2011 by David Engstrom
Dave EngstromThe cheerleaders are at it again.  "Wow look at that S&P soar.  It's about to break through 1200!"  Then there's gold.  "Gold has fallen $73 from its high - is it set to drop like a rock?"

These are headlines and comments made this morning by some of the talking heads.  The suggestion is clear, now is the time to own stocks and bail out of gold.  What's your call?

Before we even attempt to answer let's ad a little perspective to the issue of stocks versus gold.  Less than a month ago the S&P traded at 1345.  As it trades now it has fallen 11.5% from that level.  Gold on the other hand is up 8.7% in the same period.  That's after the $73 drop from its recent new record high.  

Now let's look at why the S&P is trading so far off its recent high.  Generally, I believe stocks are off because the risk of losing stimulus, (printed money) has risen.  In my recent article, the charts tell the story.  When the supply of printed money has been threatened, markets have dropped.  Since June, the threat has come from two fronts.  First, with the expiration of QE2 and then with the potential that the debt ceiling would not be raised.  All of this has left the S&P down more than 5% for the year.

Will the S&P recover some value as more stimulus programs are announced?  Probably!  But, do you see it as anything more than a short-term play?

Gold, on the other hand, is up 24% on the year as the act of printing money, in the long term, destroys the purchasing power of the dollar.  In this regard, both stocks and gold prices respond favorably to printed money.  But, here's what separates the two.  When you threaten to cut off the supply of printed money, gold still keeps rising as the potential for debt default now enters the scene. 

If you listen to the media, it seems, no matter what, it's always a good time to buy stocks and gold prices are always on the brink of dropping like a rock.  We've been hearing it for 10 years as we watched gold rise 500% and stocks barely hang on to zero gain. 

That's ZERO gain in 10 years for stocks, even less when you add some inflation into the formula!!

Now, take a look at all the conditions under which gold has risen and stocks have fallen over the last decade and project 3 years, 5 years or even 10 years ahead.   Do you see anything different than we have seen over the last 10 years?

If you see more of the same, why should we believe stocks are a good long term bet for your money and gold is not?  At the very least, the performance of stocks over the last decade, as it compares to gold, should be the best argument for diversification into precious metals.  Don't sell all your stocks.  Don't give up on America.  This is not the message.  The message is diversify.  Do the math.  A stock portfolio diversified into just 10% precious metals 10 years ago could be up 50% right now.  That's right!  Up 50%!!  Follow along.

Let's take a $10,000 self directed IRA.  In 2001 if you had $9,000 in stocks and $1,000 in gold bullion, the portfolio today, on the stock side, could still be worth about $9,000 but on the gold side your gold bullion (Yes you can own physical gold in your IRA click here for details) could be worth in the neighborhood of $6,000 depending on the exact type of bullion or bullion coin held. 

Is gold set to drop like a rock?  JP Morgan says $2500 by year-end, Deutsche Bank called for $2000 by year-end, and now Bank of America has raised its gold price prediction to $2,000 in 12 months.  So, if gold does drop like a rock watch out out cause it could turn around and rise like a rocket!





   




    



 



Concerned Voices, and a Guess at What the Next Financial Crisis Dominos-to-the-Ground Looks Like

Tuesday, June 21, 2011 by Eric Harding

Blog PhotoPer Agora Financial’s 5 Minute Forecast last Friday: “The number of voices concerned about a new financial crisis grows...

“You should be scared,” says Neil Barofsky, who was inspector general of the $700 billion TARP program to bail out the banks until last spring. “I am scared.”

“You can’t not be scared,” he tells Dan Rather in a new interview. “You can’t look at what happened in the run-up to 2008 and see how it is not going to repeat itself, given what we have done.”

Also, here is how they think the dominos are going to fall:

“So we have a scenario that looks something like this:

  • Greece defaults
  • The market value of the French banks’ commercial paper is downgraded
  • Money market funds refuse to fund new issuances of that commercial paper
  • Suddenly, the French banks don’t have enough liquidity to meet their obligations
  • Meanwhile, European banks hit up U.S. banks for their credit default swaps, putting said U.S. banks, in Mr. Greenspan’s words, “up against the wall.”

Oy... There’s no news we see today that indicates this is close to being fixed before the European Central Bank’s self-imposed deadline of July 11.”

And, Barfosky (who in my opinion should know) said the following about the next crisis: “The largest banks are now 20% larger today than they were going into the crisis,” Barofsky told Corporate Crime Reporter last week. Standard and Poor’s “estimated that the upfront costs of another bailout could be up to $5 trillion.

“And when you think about the focus on our budget issues, our deficit and our debt — what happens with the next crisis and we have to come up with another $5 trillion to bail out our system once again?

“It’s a terrifying concept.”

As the folks of the 5 Minute Forecast say: “Oy”. Oy is right. And July 11th is only 20 days away. Are you stacking your gold coins yet? I am. Gold supply and demand – that’s right! I’m demanding gold in my portfolio! Demand your gold coins today at Lear Capital !

A Financial Crisis Flag is flying on multiple fronts – be aware!

Friday, June 3, 2011 by Eric Harding

Blog photoThe chief of their emerging markets desk at Templeton Asset Management that manages $50 billion says: "There is definitely going to be another financial crisis around the corner because we haven't solved any of the things that caused the previous crisis."

Exactly! No one hands Mark Mobius at Templeton $50 billion for being a dunderhead!

From Tuesday’s Agora Financial 5 Minute Forecast: “Speaking in Tokyo, he pointed to derivatives — the financial hairball of futures, options, and swaps in which nearly all the world's major banks are tangled up.

Estimates on the amount of derivatives out there worldwide vary. An oft-heard estimate is $600 trillion. That squares with Mobius' guess of 10 times the world's annual GDP. "Are the derivatives regulated?" asks Mobius. "No. Are you still getting growth in derivatives? Yes."

In other words, something along the lines of securitized mortgages is lurking out there, ready to trigger another crisis as in 2007-08.”

Makes me want to count my stack of gold coins! How about you? This news screams: “Buy gold!” Here’s more evidence of the crisis flag a-flyin’:

From the article in MoneyNews also from Tuesday entitled Meltdown Risks Are Enormous, the following:

“The United States has still not addressed the problem of dealing with financial institutions deemed too-big-to-fail, leaving the country at risk to another meltdown like in 2008 or worse, say Gretchen Morgenson and Joshua Rosner, co-authors of the book “Reckless Endangerment.”

And:

“We have more too-big-to-fail institutions, more politically inter-connected, very deep and wide institutions that could create another system event like we had,” says Morgenson, a New York Times journalist.

“We have not solved that problem, so it’s almost as though the situation that brought us to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac having to be bailed out has now been squared or quadrupled, so it has really become worse, not better.”

Hmmm. Strong words. Strong medicine you ask? Safe haven gold. Today’s gold news is something you should immerse yourself into. Become a student of financial crises, and call us today at Lear Capital.

Lear Capital: Silver Races to Close Silver:Gold Ratio

Friday, March 25, 2011 by David Engstrom

Dave EngstromThe gold to silver ratio is often discussed and used to determine where the price of each should or could be considering the ratio.  Historically, the ratio has been set at 15 to one.  That is, the value of 15 ounces of silver is equal to the value of one ounce of gold.  Currently, we are at about 38:1.

But where did the ratio come from?  Who set it?  Biblical scholars would point to information in the Bible and combine it with archaeological finds to confirm that God may have been the original authority setting the value of each.  More recent history brings us to the U.S. own Original Coinage Act of 1792.   

In 1792 our Federal Monetary System was created after numerous failed attempts to introduce paper currencies into commerce.  The Coinage Act of 1792, was passed in order that a common monetary system could be created for the new United States.

 

Prior to doing so, the money was based largely on the British system of pounds, shillings and pence.  Use of a variety of other foreign coins, made of both gold and silver, found no favor amongst merchants and citizens alike as it was cumbersome to calculate and convert relative values of each in their daily transactions. 

 

The Act called for the minting of Gold and Silver coins.  Taking into consideration the weights of the variety of foreign coins in circulation, Alexander Hamilton, then Secretary of the Treasury, made recommendations of specific weights and metal content for each coin. 

 

In studying the values set for foreign coinage, Hamilton observed that gold carried 15 times more value per the same unit of measure as did silver.  So it was in the Act that a gold dollar would contain 24.75 grains of gold and a silver dollar would contain 371.25 grains of silver.  In consideration of the fact that a gold dollar would be very small, and that there was really no need for two kinds of dollars to circulate, the gold coin to be minted would be a $10 coin called the "Eagle."

 

It's interesting to note that Hamilton's calculations of the value of silver to gold came to equal the same ratio as set in Biblical times.  15 ounces of silver equal to 1 ounce of gold. 

Today the ratio sits near 38:1.  It may surprise some to learn that as recently as September 2008, the ratio was 83:1.  With silver demand exploding some expect the ratio to close even further.  One analyst puts silver at $52-$56 an ounce by June 2011, closing the ratio only slightly as he also projects gold significantly higher as well. see article 

Will silver eventually close the gap?  In 1980 as both gold and silver reached what we still refer to as all-time highs, (after adjusting for inflation and debasement of the dollar) the gap closed to its historical level.  Silver reached $54 an ounce and Gold hit $850.

Whether it will happen again, only time will tell.  But if it does, that's probably a good sign that it's time to sell silver or trade it all for gold.    


"I can't eat an iPad."

Wednesday, March 16, 2011 by Eric Harding

blog photoI really like the iPad. I do! My wife has one and she loves hers. But,neither one of can eat it as a meal. Also, a fine resident of Queens, NY agrees with me. You see, New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley was holding a discussion in Queens last Friday about how Fed policy works. As Kristina Cooke wrote in this Reuters article was bombarded by questions about food inflation. As an example: “"When was the last time, sir, that you went grocery shopping?" one audience member asked.”

Agreed. As mentioned, after Dudley referenced the iPad 2 being priced the same as an iPad 1, the one Queens resident said: "I can't eat an iPad.”

This may go down in history as a moment where it showed just how out of touch our Federal Reserve is with it’s citizens.

Can you eat physical gold, or a small gold coin, or even numismatic silver? No. But, they can help your portfolio potentially keep pace with the ravages of the inflation that our Fed cannot see. Call us at Lear Capital today!

Lear Capital review of an article: statement - “Why are so many state legislators beginning to call for issuance of a form of gold money?”

Wednesday, March 9, 2011 by Eric Harding

blog photoIt's all about physical gold that winds up in the form of a gold coin.

Here’s a short answer to Ralph Benko’s question above. He’s the one who wrote the article entitled Gold, the States and Federal Monetary Policy. His answer?Disgust is probably the answer. Various state legislators are disgusted by the federal government’s promiscuous dollar-printing. Accordingly, legislators in a dozen states are contemplating legislation to issue gold or silver-based currencies, including Utah, South Carolina, Virginia and New Hampshire.”

Did you catch that folks? 12 state legislators are looking into how physical gold and silver currencies could replace the US dollar. Are you looking at how you can replace your dollars with physical gold and silver ? If not, you should be! Call us today at Lear Capital to get it done!

Lear Capital: China Hints at Purpose for Gold Accumulation

Tuesday, March 8, 2011 by David Engstrom
Dave EngstromIt's no secret that China's gold demand is soaring.  They are buying mines, concentrates from which to extract gold and as much physical gold as they can secretly buy in world markets.

Reports also indicate, the people of China are being encouraged to buy some gold with every paycheck as the future of the world economy is uncertain at best.  As world debt expands, currencies are debased and gold prices rise as a result.

Frustrating, is the fact, that the Chinese approach to dealing with a global debt crisis is to equip its government and its people with gold, in order to withstand the fallout of a potential Global Debt Crisis II.  An approach perfectly opposite of our approach to the debt crisis - one that encourages borrowing and spending.  

So intense is China's desire to own more gold that one has to believe there is greater purpose to its strategy.  Perhaps we gain a little insight, as to what that strategy is, from a Reuters release today that speaks of China's desire to position the yuan as a new reserve currency.

Some believe, the dollar has only a short time remaining in its role as the world's reserve currency.  When modern day printing of more dollars, only requires a few keystrokes at the computer, it's no wonder the dollar has become suspect.  It seems now only a matter of time before the dollar is replaced, at least in part, as the king of currencies.

This leaves us to wonder, what happens when the event occurs?  Of course there are many variables.  Some believe China's appetite for gold is for the purpose of backing, or partially backing the yuan with gold.  It is argued that the gold standard will never return as there simply isn't enough gold to back all the money that exists.  But, what about a currency partially backed by gold?  Surely, such a currency would have to carry some additional clout as it could not just be printed without adding more gold to the coffers.

Rumors have long been circulating that Arab nations were also considering a gold backed Dinar.  Now throw in the possibility of the IMF creating the equivalent of a gold backed currency (a story in itself for another time) and a trend appears.  Finally, let's add some drama.  Just days ago, the Utah House of Representatives passed legislation that would make gold and silver money again.  Money it would accept for payments of certain state taxes.  The bill even proposed some tax breaks for those who would pay with gold and silver coin.

As the dollar, albeit penny by penny, is replaced by alternative currencies backed by gold, one would expect its value to shrink.  Where might this send the gold price?  One can only speculate that the limit to the heights the gold price may reach would only be limited to the depths in which the dollar value could fall.

Don't get caught short.  Demand for physical gold is rising around the globe.  At Lear Capital we believe everyone should own some.  Visit our web site today for real-time gold prices and some of the best online prices for the world's favorite gold and silver coins.







 

Lear Capital: Living Better Than Kings…Part Two

Tuesday, February 1, 2011 by Peter Giordano

A few weeks ago, I wrote how the average person today lives better than kings did not so very long ago. I didn’t mean to be presumptuous—I realize many are suffering during this time of “prolonged recession” and certainly not living up to anything resembling the standards of royalty.

 

But consider this: For the most part, people are wonderfully adaptable creatures, adaptable to both good and bad times. Assuming you’ve had some kind of job and a roof over your head (and maybe that’s a stretch, too), you’ve probably already adapted to the wonderfully favorable conditions Western culture has provided over the past 50 years.

 

What conditions are these?

 

Here’s a short list:

 

1/ Freedom in the land

2/ A stable currency and means of exchange

3/ Reasonably attainable permanent shelter; emergency shelter for those in need

4/ Wide accessibility to clean water

5/ Conveniently located (and relatively affordable) sources of (generally fresh) food

6/ The common use of refrigerators to store otherwise perishable food right in our homes

7/ Electricity (and gas ) delivered to our homes

8/ Instant communication across many platforms, including telephones, cell phones, emails and texting.

9/ Emergency (and long-term) medical help

10/ Indoor plumbing 24/7

11/ Indoor heating when it’s cold outside

12/ Indoor cooling when it’s hot outside

13/ In-home entertainment of every sort, 24/7, via various TV, satellite and cable systems (ranging in price from free to about $100/month)

14/ The Internet

15/ A still-local police force

16/ Generally available private and public transportation; well-maintained roads; a national highway system; affordable and accessible fuel; freedom to travel

17/ Sanitary services, provided town by town, including garbage/trash removal

18/ Low inflation

 

It’s hard to imagine that our ancestors grew up missing many (or all) of these advantages. But they did. Yet they adapted pretty well (we’re here, aren’t we?). Today, having lived better than kings of not so long ago (many of us, anyway), life would be pretty odd without any of the above 18 advantages. Imagine, for instance, no longer having cell phones? Or supermarkets?

 

Or indoor plumbing? 

 

I’m not suggesting that we’re about to “go Neanderthal” and pass through a season of terrible deprivation, lose all of these kingly advantages, and face a sort of soul-shaking cold turkey withdrawal from modern life. On the other hand, the great majority of us believe that losing even one of the above benefits would be an utter impossibility given today’s technological advancements and mankind’s resourcefulness. Such mortal certainties have no basis in history.

 

Just as a smug Titanic deckhand was alleged to have uttered on the day of the great ship’s launch—“Even God Himself couldn’t sink the Titanic”— we’ve become entirely too dependent on man’s supposed greatness to keep us living like kings.

 

A King’s Ransom in Debt

 

Ironically enough, on the very day President Obama painted a rosy picture in his 2010 State-of-the-Union Address, the Congressional Budget Office was heading in the other direction, forecasting an all-time high $1.48 trillion for the 2011 federal deficit. And even that was conservative according to the U.S. National Debt Clock (http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/ ) that claims we’re now $14 trillion in debt.

 

Meaning? Meaning, if we were aboard the Titanic, we’d probably be at the point where we were cruising at high speed, in the dark, at about 11:40 p.m., in iceberg dotted seas.

 

Another perspective? Americans now owe more money to more people than any human beings on Earth ever have. We somehow owe more dollars than there are even dollars in the world.

 

But so what, right? The US debt is just a bunch of numbers that really don’t mean a whole lot to the average man and woman….a mess Washington got into in that doesn’t have anything to do with the average Joe. For all we care about our debt troubles (or want to know), NBC News with Brian Williams might as well be reporting that the U.S. now has a “humongous” debt of “zillions and zillions” of dollars (as if speaking to a bunch of bored kids).

 

After all, America’s record debt still seems pretty tame, doesn’t it? It’s not interfering with our watching “Dancing with the Stars” or “Glee” or any of the other popular TV shows out there. And it doesn’t stop us from grabbing a Big Mac at McDonald’s anytime we wish. If it did mess with our lifestyle, then, sure, we’d probably get really, really angry and start paying a lot closer attention.

 

Thinking Outside the Economy’s Smug Little Box

 

Of course…if you were a reader of history…you might be just a bit alarmed by now. We’re going on forty years since the dollar was detached from gold and became a fiat currency. A fiat currency is one that’s not backed by gold or silver or anything of real value but is only valuable because government says it is.

 

A Canadian writer by the name of  Rob Kirby observed, “…the learned Central Bankers know that historically, fiat currencies have a life span of around 40 years, maximum. The U.S. closed the gold window in 1971—38 years ago (this was written in 2009). This is why all of the king's horses and all the king's men —ultimately—won’t be able to put the humpty-dumpty-dollar back together again.”

 

That predicted dollar deterioration may be reflected in a growing uneasiness at Moody’s, the international credit rating service.

 

“We have become increasingly clear about the fact that if there are not offsetting measures to reverse the deterioration in negative fundamentals in the U.S., the likelihood of a negative outlook over the next two years will increase,” said Sarah Carlson, senior analyst at Moody’s.

 

Translated? It may be smart to get your own personal back-up for the dollar and the U.S. economy…if you can tear yourself away from “Dancing with the Stars” long enough, that is.

 

Your “I Enjoy Living Like Kings” Money

 

It’s interesting to note that almost every issuance of paper money starts out backed by gold and/or silver. After a while, however, there’s an expensive war or politicians simply get tired of the fiscal discipline the gold standard demands and detaches the currency from its hard money origin.

 

Which seems to light a kind of fuse to the credibility of the country’s currency. So why does gold have so much durable worth? Gold and silver have been recognized as money for as long as there have been civilizations. Build yourself a time machine and go back to about 700 B.C., and you’ll see for yourself that gold has held value since then (just be sure to take some gold with you as spending money). 

 

Might be a wise move, if you want to continue living like a king, to invest in gold and silver coins today while they’re both still readily available.  

Lear Capital: Is the U.S. on Its Debt Bed? Is Gold the Cure?

Thursday, January 20, 2011 by David Engstrom
Dave EngstromMind boggling isn't it?  One minute we're printing money for clunkers and new windows to replace the ones we just threw money out of.  The next minute we're contemplating penny-ante ways to cut spending, balance the budget and reduce debt.

Cutting defense spending is on the table as well as a proposed pay freeze for civilian government workers.  One Texas Republican, Kevin Brady says cut the federal workforce by 10 percent.  Even cuts to Social Security benefits and Medicare have been brought to the table, but good luck on that one. 

Currently, of every dollar the U.S. spends to pay its bills, 40 cents is borrowed.  As we continue to borrow money to pay debt, the snake has begun to eat its own tail.  Eventually, it will bite off its own head.    I mean really!  Why cook up ways and reasons to borrow money and increase debt, if all it means is we have to sit down and figure out new ways to get rid of it?

Be that as it may, that is what we are doing.  Couched in those terms, it seems rather hopeless.  Not so.  I think we all have to resign ourselves to the fact that really high inflation is coming and there is no way to stop it.  If debt gets so great we have to default, the dollar crashes as investors lose faith in dollar assets.  If we keep printing money for stimulus and to pay debt, the dollar crashes anyway.  The speed at which it does is perhaps the only real mystery.

Lose lose! Win win! You decide which side you want to be on.  To win, you need to figure out how to invest in a manner that allows you to use some financial judo.  Take advantage of inflation by making investments into things that usually do better as inflation rises.

Commodities fall into that category.  Historically, real estate was also thrown into that mix.  The problem with real estate at the moment, though, is the number of looming foreclosures.  Prices in real estate will not bottom until the majority of these issues are settled.  It is estimated that more than 10 million homes are still at risk of being foreclosed upon.  Meanwhile, downward price pressure still exists.

Then, of course, there are precious metals.  Currently, we're seeing some downward pressure on gold prices and other metals.  I attribute that to investor confusion over what to be uncertain about.  The financial media is trying to cram recovery down our throats, while Congressmen are warning us debt is driving us to the verge of default and riots in the streets.  See Congressman Paul Ryan's warning in this article.

While the whole world is scrambling to protect itself from default by owning more and more gold - silver too - far be it from any of our officials to say maybe you should own a gold coin.  China flat out tells their citizens to get some gold, Russia has been buying by the gruzovik load, Greeks have paid as much as $1700 an ounce for it and then we get gold vending machines.  Globally, gold demand is skyrocketing.  

Our elected officials tell us the opposite and do everything they can to promote it.  Spend Spend Spend!  And, if you don't have the money to spend we'll print it for you.  Wake up and smell the dead fish.  Accept inflation, even embrace it.  Let the economy recover with printed money but don't get caught on the wrong side of the trade.  You have to diversify - you have to prepare.  Gold can't cure the debt problem but it can make you immune to the ravages of inflation. 



  



 

 





Lear Capital: What Explodes First? Debt Bomb or Gold Price

Wednesday, January 5, 2011 by David Engstrom
Dave EngstromI knew our debt problems were bad but this is downright scary.  It has been considered that a debt ratio above 90% of GDP was dangerous.  It was believed to be the prelude to default as it marked the point at which we could no longer afford to pay just the interest due on all of our debt obligations.

To know what that means, just consider what happens to you when you can no longer afford to make the minimum payment on your credit card debt.  First, your ability to borrow goes away and then your possessions against which you have borrowed money.  Or, of course, there is the bankruptcy option.   

If that's the case, this chart taken from an article by Chris Martenson just marked what might be the beginning of the end of our financial life.

Chart showing percentage of U.S. Debt to GDP

The Blue Arrow points to 1929 and the red circle marks a time in 1985 when debt began to skyrocket.  As you see, today's total debt to GDP ratio has risen above 320%.  Ouch!!!  During the Great Depression, that level peaked near 260%.

By all accounts our dollar may already be worthless.  Something is going to give.  Obviously, debt that is more than triple our GDP is only sustainable by printing more money.  How else can the payments be made?

The signs are there.  The Fed's recent move to buy up Treasuries, is clear evidence that there are not enough external buyers willing to take further risk.  Now we see why.

As others have written before, the debt bomb fuse has been lit.  When it blows, gold prices could easily explode with it.

If acquiring a gold coin is not in your monthly budget, do as others have begun to do and add some silver to your savings and retirement accounts.  For a guide to adding gold or silver to your IRA, please click here to request a free copy of Lear Capital's all new Guide to building a gold backed IRA.

Which do you think explodes first?






 

Lear Capital: 5 Ways To Survive and Thrive During the Recession

Friday, December 10, 2010 by Peter Giordano

MeNothing’s been resolved. That’s the thing. After all the suffering we’ve been through, you'd think we would have at least resolved some economic issues by now. But the truth is we’ve only been postponing debt trouble and not actually passing through it, putting it behind us.

A recovery just can't seem to find any traction. After all, the economy has been in the dumps some 36 months now (this all began in Dec 2007). That compares, unfortunately, to the start of the Great Depression. The Dow had dropped from a high of 381 in September of 1929 to just 41 in June of 1932, three years after the Dow’s high, concluding a breathtaking 89 percent collapse in value.

Most of us were counting on this recession/depression being over by now.

But if the recession still has a long way to go, is there anything we can do to help ourselves survive and thrive in the days ahead? Here are five ideas.

1/ Follow the Media…Just Don’t It Follow Too Closely. By that, I mean, don’t take what the media says as the gospel truth. The media isn't quite as objective as it wants you to believe. It may be motivated to paint the economy in the prettiest colors possible. Why? Because that would tend to attract advertisers and sponsors who might otherwise hold back until the downturn is obviously over. Remember, ultimately, no advertising, no media. Listen to a variety of news sources.

2/ Be careful what assumptions you make about the stock market. Assumptions? You know...the market’s been down so long there just has to be a bull rally right around the corner. As far as assumptions go, this could be a real whopper. Nothing says the Dow has to go up after a prolonged recession. Consider this: The Dow finally revisited the September 1929 market high 25 years later in November 1954! So...Anyone who bought stocks in mid-1929 and held onto them saw most of his or her adult life pass by before getting back to even,” observed analyst R. Salsman. As if that’s not bad enough, that doesn’t take into account the massive inflation that occurred over those 25 intervening years, seriously diluting an investor’s initial purchasing power. So buying low (at least at what we think is low) is not the panacea we assume it to be. What’s more, retiring baby boomers means investors will start staying away from the stock market in droves in the years ahead.

 

3 Don’t invent new solutions to the recession. There's no need. You don’t have to come up with whacky remedies for your personal finances, especially when good tried-and-true methods seem to be working so well. Like gold and silver. Gold's recessionary track record is speaking for itself. You don’t have to come up with something as obscure as strategic metals from Timbukto or mutual funds that focus on tulip bulbs.

 

4 History isn’t the only template. It’s not the only example to go by. What happened in the Great Depression isn’t necessarily what we have in store for us here and now (and that goes doubly for me and my Great Depression examples). Conversely, it would be pretty naïve to think that we'll face none of what the people back then had to endure. This recession of ours has its own fingerprints. 

5 Hunker down (at least a bit). What this means is that it may be smart to keep some necessities on hand. Like food. Doing so doesn't mean you have to admit to yourself that you really do harbor deep suspicions over the otherwise reliable food distribution system we've enjoyed all of our lives. But if you suddenly do encounter a bout of unemployment, it may make things go a bit easier for you and your family.

Also, you might get in the habit of not spending every single dollar you earn each month. This isn't a time for fun and games. Let's face it, recessions are serious business.   

 

So where do we go from here? Including gold and silver coins in your financial gameplan in the event economic times get out-of-hand could be a really smart move, even if gold and silver investors have already enjoyed a tremendous run.

Don't worry about their good fortune. There's still plenty of upward potential for precious metals. After all, the one thing we have learned, over this time of great uncertainty, is that gold has shown itself to be a proven antidote to the current economic ills.

 

Lear Capital Review of Article: The Shaky Foundation of the Financial System

Tuesday, December 7, 2010 by Eric Harding

blog photoPlease read this in it’s entirety. It is at the very heart of the matter – the problem with paper money, or most importantly the ABUSE of the privilege of printing paper money.

12/03/10

 Oh, what a tangled web we weave
When first we practice to deceive

 

– Sir Walter Scott

 

“The trouble with today’s financial system,” we told a Bloomberg reporter, “is that it is based on fraud.

“At the bottom of it is paper money – itself a kind of deception. It pretends to be real money. And it is real money – in the sense that you can use it to buy things. But it is prone to lie. All the feds have to do is to turn on the printing press and it will tell you that you are a lot richer than you really are.

“This sort of flimflam has been going on ever since the end of WWII. The feds systematically increased the amount of paper money…leading people to think they had more purchasing power than they really had. Today, a dollar is worth only about 3% as much as it was 100 years ago.

“But that’s just the beginning of the scam. They also systematically under-priced credit – in the belief that the key to prosperity is consumer credit and spending, rather than saving and production.

“The system has its architects and its operators – all quacks and mountebanks. They pretend that they can manage the currency and manage the economy. Yet they misunderstand the most basic elements of how a real economy works. Wealth does not come from consuming…it comes from producing.

“The managers claim to be able to manipulate the economy so well that they can actually improve its performance…that is, they say they can make the economy perform better than it would on its own…better than it has naturally for the past two thousand years. By eliminating the cyclical downturns, the feds told us that they would we all be richer…and free from the volatility that plagued us theretofore.

“So they fiddle and fake it…improvising…and making it up as they go along. The raise interest rates…and then they reduce them. They introduce more paper money when it suits them and change banking rules as their theories suggest.

“When anything ‘bad’ happens, defined as something they don’t like, they rush to fix it. But what can they fix it with? A little duct tape of monetary policy. A little fiscal baler twine too.

“Their fixes are not completely random or haphazard. They have a bias – towards more credit, more spending, more cash, and more speculation. If they tighten rates one month, they loosen them for two months. If they run a surplus in the federal accounts one year, they run deficits for the next five.

“Gradually, more and more debt, mistakes, bad judgments and cockamamie speculations build up. And then, the authorities are under pressure…running from one crisis to another…providing credit to one zombie…and bailout to another…and raw meat to a third.

“And then suddenly, the discipline and self-restraints that held them back gives way like a frayed old rope. Then the central banks and Treasury authorities are running free…abandoning themselves to the trickery and fraud inherent in their profession. The European Central Bank says it will provide ‘unlimited liquidity’ to those who need it, in order to fend off a debt crisis in the Old World. In the New World, the Bank of Ben Bernanke is already bailing out big banks in North America as well as those of Europe. And everywhere, the feds are ready to support one another…and bankroll the IMF…with more paper money and more credit…

“…all of them desperate to hold the system together.”

And now they link arms – the Fed, the ECB, the EU and the US…and don’t forget Japan and the BOJ. And off they march – right off a cliff.

Bill Bonner
for The Daily Reckoning


The antithesis of paper money? Physical gold. Get your golden coin today at Lear Capital !

Bravo to Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer!

Wednesday, November 10, 2010 by Eric Harding

Chuck Butler of EverBank caught this in his Daily Pfennig today. He was discussing how the US Federal Reserve feels that there is a need for more inflation. He detailed what Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer said about this: "That's like the New York Police Department complaining about the lack of crimes."

 

I agree! With folks who want more inflation – arm yourself with gold coins! Start your stack today by calling Lear Capital!

Wall Street Journal Commentary – from their Journal Community:”I hope Home Depot is having a sale on wheelbarrows, …”

Thursday, November 4, 2010 by Eric Harding

Says Misty Lane in response to the Wall Street Journal article Fed Fires $600 Billion Stimulus Shot, “…because I’m going to need a new one to carry my money into the grocery store for a loaf of bread soon.”

Buy two Misty. Get one for your neighbor too. They will thank you later! Folks, do you get it? Americans are beginning to wake up!

In December of 2006 I was asked to make a presentation about ownership of physical gold to a group of friends in Cincinnati. I used a wheelbarrow, a bundle of fake $1,000,000.00 bills and a small gold coin to make my point. Ask yourself this question: “which would you rather have?”

I’ll take the small gold coin, or better yet, a rare gold coin from Lear Capital!

At Lear Capital, we see symptoms of the currency war....

Thursday, October 28, 2010 by Eric Harding

Folks, this is how small things in the new currency war get bigger:

BEIJING, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Dollar issuance by the United States is "out of control", leading to an inflation assault on China, the Chinese commerce minister said in comments reported on Tuesday.

Read about the above lead sentence and more here in Reuters. If you have not begun to protect yourself with gold coin currency that endures such battles, now is the time to learn how to buy gold. A suggestion – call The Precious Metal Leaders – call Lear Capital!  


Lear Capital: Origin of Gold vs. Silver Ratio

Monday, October 4, 2010 by David Engstrom

Discussed more and more, as silver prices rally, is the ratio in value of silver to gold.  Currently sitting at 60 ounces silver being equal to 1 ounce gold, some say that ratio is headed much lower.  Why the optimism?  Perhaps history explains.

In 1792 our Federal Monetary System was created after numerous failed attempts to introduce paper currencies into commerce.  The Original Coinage Act of 1792 was passed in order that a common monetary system could be created for the new United States.

 

Prior to doing so, the money was based largely on the British system of pounds, shillings and pence.  Use of a variety of other foreign coins, made of both gold and silver, found no favor amongst merchants and citizens alike as it was cumbersome to calculate and convert relative values of each in their daily transactions. 

 

The Act called for the minting of Gold and Silver coins.  Taking into consideration the weights of the variety of foreign coins in circulation, Alexander Hamilton, Secretary of the Treasury, made recommendations of specific weights and metal content for each coin. 

 

In studying the values set for foreign coinage, Hamilton observed that gold carried 15 times more value per the same unit of measure as did silver.  So it was in the Act that a gold dollar would contain 24.75 grains of gold and a silver dollar would contain 371.25 grains of silver.  In consideration of the fact that a gold dollar would be very small, and that there was really no need for two kinds of dollars to circulate, the gold coin to be minted would be a $10 coin called the "Eagle."

 

It's interesting to note that Hamilton's calculations of the value of silver to gold came to equal the same ratio as set in Biblical times.  15 ounces of silver equal to 1 ounce of gold. 

Hamilton's ratio, or God's if you will, has now not been seen since 1980 when gold and silver hit respective highs of $850 and $54 per ounce.  This is one reason silver investors are excited as they see an ultimate convergence of both the gold price and silver price back to their lawful ratio. 

Will it occur?  At present, either the gold price has to drop dramatically or silver has to rise even more so.  With global debt driving gold demand through the roof, as even central banks are now accumulating gold to offset currency debasement, the more likely scenario appears to be rising silver.  Considering gold at $1315 today that means silver would have to be $87.67 an ounce.  

Personally, I believe if the silver price does catch up to its historic ratio to gold, it will not be until both reach bubble proportion.  Nonetheless, silver has some catching up to do, meaning a well diversified savings and retirement account should maybe have some.

For great on-line gold coin and silver coin prices, visit LearCapital.com and compare.  There you will not only find low buy prices but you will find current sell prices as well. 

 







CNBC article: US Is 'Practically Owned' by China: Analyst

Friday, October 1, 2010 by Eric Harding
In light of the above subject line of the article, it is interesting that Tom Winnfrith who was interviewed by CNBC concluded this about gold bullion:

“….gold is a better investment than the dollar despite it hitting a new record, Tom Winnifrith, CEO at financial services firm Rivington Street Holdings, told CNBC.com Monday.”

It is most interesting to weigh the evidence lately. Owning gold coins is viewed as a more practical investment than dollars. Unfortunately, this is what happens to debtors. "Practically Owned" becomes totally owned. Own an asset - not a debt. Buy gold from Lear Capital!


Lear Capital: What Would $2000 Gold Be Worth?

Wednesday, September 15, 2010 by David Engstrom
Today, one of our readers (Jim) made a great comment worthy of further comment.  Jim said, "I'm not sure why you don't want to accept that gold is at a record high."

Let's imagine, Jim, that we are still on the gold standard and that gold is the money of commerce.  Would an ounce of gold today buy more than it would have in 1980? 

Let's refer to the example I made earlier.  In 1980, 10 ounces of gold would have bought a new luxury mid-size car carrying a price tag of $8,000 or so.  Today, you cannot buy a new luxury mid-size car for 10 ounces of gold, which when translated to dollars amounts to $12,500.  Even a Mini-Cooper carries a price tag of $20,000 for the basic car to $30,000 for the luxury version.  

Let's compare to another commodity.  A gallon of gas in 1980 was $1.25, an ounce of gold would have paid for 680 gallons.  Today at $3.00 per gallon, an ounce of gold would only buy 416 gallons. 

Now let's compare to income.  In 1980 the median income in this country was $17,710 per year.  In January 2010 after taking a monster hit since the credit crisis, that amount is still $46,026.  Or, in gold terms 20 ounces in 1980 against 37 ounces gold today.

Now let's work the numbers backwards.  To once again buy a luxury mid-size car with 10 ounces gold, gold would have to be $2500 to $3000 per ounce.  

To buy 680 gallons of gas, gold would have to be $2040 an ounce.  And, finally, in order for 20 ounces of gold to once again be worth a year's wage, gold would have to be worth $2,301 per ounce.

So, I say, in order for gold to match its record high of 1980, gold would have to reach these levels when deonominated in dollars to just to make the claim that gold is once again at record highs. 

I think it's a very important point to make precisely because all we hear is that gold is at record highs well above its previous record and that it cannot keep rising.   

We will get into more discussions on this but for now, let's settle on this fact.  Gold is not really an investment at all.  Since the early days of man and commerce, gold was a constant store of wealth.  It's not gold that fluctuates up and down in value, it is the currency against which gold is measured that fluctuates. 

People look at gold as being measured in dollars.  I look at dollars as being measured in gold.  And right now gold has a long way to go to reach its own record worth.

As inflation drives down the value of the dollar which in turn drives the cost of goods and services higher in dollar terms, gold will effectively maintain a constant value over long periods of time.  Right now gold is behind  the constant value curve and in my opinion needs to play a little catch up to say it has reached a record value.  

I believe this is the global perspective that is still driving gold demand at record levels.  If you want to stay ahead of the curve, follow the example the smart money is setting and grab a few gold coins to put in your retirement accounts.   

 


Lear Capital: 7 Ways Washington Could Turn Things Around

Tuesday, September 14, 2010 by Peter Giordano
Some Americans have come up with a few great antidotes to the bad economy...of course, these are usually the same people who aren't in power and can't do a single thing about it. Given that qualifier, here are seven antidotes from the always enlightening Casey Research (http://www.caseyresearch.com).

1/ A forced renegotiation with U.S. Treasury/agency debt holders, like China and Japan.

2/ Letting the banks that should fail, actually fail. That would ultimately be a healthy thing...the spooky word here being "ultimately."

3/ Turning the lights out on the U.S. empire, meaning that we quit spending so much overseas.

4/ Goodbye big government. "Under my solution, the size and scope of government will have to be seriously reduced, a process best started by severely limiting the ability of politicians to make new regulations and pass new taxes or mandates."

5/ Farewell Fannie and Freddie. "Nationalizing the mortgage industry was a horrible idea."

6/ "Institute a flat tax at a level that everyone will happily pay."

7/ "Link the money to something that limits the ability of government to print the stuff up at will." As a reminder here, and at this writing, gold coins cannot be printed up by any known printing press.

What's more, it takes significant time and effort to pull gold out of the ground. If our money were linked to this tough-to-produce gold, it would actually be really valuable. Simple as that.