Lear Capital: Is Gold Back at $1900 By Next Week

Wednesday, August 31, 2011 by David Engstrom
Dave EngstromJust a few days ago, after gold prices reached record highs above $1900 an ounce, word was the gold bubble had finally burst.  The chart had gone parabolic, CME Group raised margin requirements on gold contracts and gold prices were plummeting.  THE END!

Meanwhile, what was really going on was . . . Once gold hit that fresh record high, normal profit taking was met with bursting bubble hype which exacerbated the move down.  This separated the weak from the herd while the wolves waited to feast on those who left the herd's safety.  As fast as someone was willing to sell, someone else was willing to buy. 

We've been saying for months, maybe years now, gold supply is growing short.  Just weeks ago, Standard Chartered came out with a report based on a survey of over 300 gold mines and determined gold production was going to fall drastically short of prior estimates.  They also concurred with numerous other reports that central bank gold buying will stress supply and drive gold prices much higher. 

Now, just as quickly as the gold price dipped $160 off its all-time high, it has rebounded to once again show that $1900 may be in its sights.  Instead of seeing signs that a bubble has burst, we're seeing the opposite - incredible resilience!  Maybe JP Morgan's call for $2500 gold by year-end isn't so far off. 

Let's face it!  Nothing has changed!  The economy is puking, jobs are dwindling, home prices and home sales are crashing again and the expectations of QE3 are growing every day.  I heard one analyst today say we're at least 10 years away from any kind of economic stability.  Now, as another U.S. holiday approaches, I fully expect the gold-hungry of the world to step up and buy like crazy while we celebrate our waning days of summer.

And the cycle starts all over again.  Record highs, profit-taking, bursting bubble hype and rebound.  $1900 gold by next week is definitely on the radar.  For more Breaking News! Real Time Gold Prices and Free Gold and Economic Reports visit LearCapital.com





While CNBC is saying Bon Voyage to QE II, YOUR central bank is happy it made YOUR currency weaker!

Friday, July 1, 2011 by Eric Harding

Blog photoAs an investor, you should WANT your own home currency to be strong. A strong currency helps you to plan for a future without inflation, without a potential debasement of your money. Well, it looks like you are not going to get it. You see, the President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve said yesterday at a conference on Quantitative Easing that a desired weaker dollar has been achieved. His words, right from the St. Louis Fed’s website:

“In reality QE 2 worked. In particular, real interest rates declined, inflation expectations rose, the dollar depreciated, and equity prices rose, ….”

I’m sorry Mr. Bullard, but if you are stating that QE 2 was a success as it weakened our dollar, I’m going to vote with my feet and invest in physical gold. I’m going to buy gold with those dollars as I look for a safe haven from your policies. Annual gold production can’t rise fast enough to stem the tide of a policy that is happy with your currency becoming weaker. Before you see the gold coin cost rise further, call us at Lear Capital!


Lear Capital: China - The Game Changer For Gold

Monday, June 20, 2011 by David Engstrom
Dave EngstromIn February of 2001 gold prices dipped below $260 an ounce amid proclamations that it was a dead investment.  Because it produced no income, we were taught it should be neglected in favor of stocks, bonds, real estate and pretty much everything else.

For a couple years, gold traded sideways as stocks rebounded and real estate began to rise in value.  By 2004 an economic recovery appeared to be in full swing as the stock market began a trek to record highs.  At it's lowest level in 2004, gold traded near $400 an ounce and then the game changed.

In 2004, China made a historical move and legalized gold ownership for its citizens.  Since touching a low near $400 an ounce in 2004, the gold price has never looked back.  Even while stocks marched to record highs, Gold prices moved in lock step.  It seemed unusual and largely ignored as stock and real estate became investor favorites. 

The whole country was awash with liquidity.  Money was cheap and flowing like the Niagara into the economy.  No one really paid any attention to gold.  No one here anyway.  But, gold demand was coming from somewhere.  Why else would the price be rising so dramatically past $500, $600, $700 an ounce? At each milestone, reports intensified - "The Gold Rush is Over."  

We still hear that today and someday the experts will be right.  But for now, China sure makes it look like the gold rush has only just begun.  In 1Q of 2011 investor demand in China soared to 90.9 metric tons of gold.  For the first time ever, China began to outpace India as the world's largest consumer of investment gold. 

Then in April 2011, China reportedly matched its entire 1Q consumption by purchasing another 100 metric tons.  Gold demand was skyrocketing, driving the price near $1600 an ounce.  All the while, experts here joined in the same chorus, again, "the gold rally is over."  They pointed to a few tonnes sold by George Soros as a sign - "get out before the roof collapses," was the cry.

At the same time in April, that gold prices were threatening to breach $1600 an ounce, a report broke that China may be dumping two-thirds of its dollar holdings - some $2 trillion worth.  By now, it all ads up.  Gold hit record highs in April while China was offing dollars for gold.  While 100 tonnes is far from $2 trillion worth, it seems the process is underway and may have been now since 2004.  

At present only 1.8% of China's currency reserves are in gold.  The average for a country is 11% which means China would have to add 6000 tonnes of gold to its reserve just to catch up.  That amount exceeds two full years of mine production.  Even if China accomplishes this over 5 years, that could well mean, one half of all annual gold production would be bought by just China.  Catching up in just five years also assumes demand from other countries or central banks will remain static.  Not so fast!  

In April, 2011, Reuters reported that in 2010 Central Banks of the world, turned into net buyers of gold for the first time in more than 10 years.  Now do the math.  If China wants to play catch-up over the next 5 years,  they have to buy more than half of the world's annual gold production every year, and then do it while all central banks are making a bid to control the world's gold supply.

The evidence is clear, those who print our money are turning around and buying gold.  Since 2004, gold prices have nearly quadrupled.  Now, we're entering an era of currency distrust by the very same whose job it is to maintain currency integrity.  This is the game changer and why some experts now call for gold above $5,000 an ounce.  LearCapital.com
   

       

 



Lear Capital: China Wants all the Gold - and They're Getting It!

Thursday, February 10, 2011 by David Engstrom
Dave EngstromNews just gets more bullish for gold all the time.  While we here in America try to revel in rumors of recovery, China is gathering gold like pumpkins before Halloween.  Do they know something we don't?  If you own gold, the answer is no they don't know anything you don't.  If you don't own gold wake up and smell the dead fish.

According to an article by Lawrence Williams, posted on Mineweb.com February 3, China has imported an amount of gold in 2010 that equals near 25% of global production.  Please click here to get all the details.  Which means, between India (still world's largest consumer of gold) and China, more than half the annual global production is going to those two countries.

Here in the U.S. the opposite was true as the World Gold Council reported gold demand eased in 2010.  We may be the only place on earth where gold demand subsided.  The Europeans don't seem to be able to get enough, even poor Greeks were buying gold for a time at $1700 dollars an ounce.  Then Arab countries gave the world the gold vending machine.  

All the while here, investors chose to take a bite of the AAPL over gold and stocks are in a recovery rebound.  Being ignored is the fact that hundreds of billions - no trillions of dollars have been pumped into the economy to prop it up.

Definitely, as you listen to the talking heads, Gold is given the kind of respect even Rodney Dangerfield would have appreciated.  No, I don't want the stock market to crash and I don't want any more people to lose their jobs.  What I do want is for people to avoid complacency.  Debt got us into this mess and now we have a few trillion more of debt than when all the trouble began. 

At last glance, each and everyone one of us men, women and children is in debt to the tune of $45,422.72.   Check out this debt clock widget.  I'm getting fixated on it.  That's not to include any debt you carry on your own.  And if you're a newborn baby reading this, you were just born with a $45,000 bill to pay.  

That's what the Chinese know that we don't.  Our debt is unsustainable now and within weeks we are likely to get license to accumulate even more as the Congress is called to vote on raising the debt ceiling above the current $14.3 trillion mark. 

In the end, he who holds the gold will make all the rules and at this rate it won't be us.  Let me give you one more sign that foreign gold demand is putting the hurt on gold supply.  For fun, I again went to the U.S. Mint website.  They are still not producing American Gold Eagles.  Why?  Because they are out of gold!!!

Shouldn't that tell you something?  If you don't have gold yet, it's time to lock in a few gold coins.  Visit LearCapital.com for incredible online pricing and pay attention.  Lear will even give you a real-time gold price widget for free to have on your desktop.  News is everywhere - gold is the place to be.  But then that's just my opinion.   


Lear Capital: Why Gold Has to Go Over $2,000

Thursday, October 14, 2010 by Eric Harding

Byron King with Agora Financial knows commodities and currencies – like physical gold. That is why when he stated two weeks ago in his above article, I took notice. He started with the usual background information about why one should own gold – including this:

“Since ancient times, gold has been a safe haven for investors worried about market volatility and political uncertainty. Even the rise of paper currencies hasn’t managed to kill the idea of gold in people’s minds. That’s because gold is no one’s liability — currencies come and go, but gold remains the same.

For that reason alone, precious metals should always have a permanent place in your portfolio. It is the ultimate hedge.”

Then, he pointed to the ever present and very popular reason to own ANY asset class when it does better than its average – potential breakout:

“But today holding gold is more important — and can be more profitable — than it’s been in years. That’s because we’re seeing a repeat of the same forces that pushed gold from $35 to over $800 between 1971 and 1980. I’m talking about things like a weakening dollar, easy monetary policies and geopolitical uncertainty.”

Byron didn’t just stop there. Two days later he wrote a follow-up entitled More Reasons Gold is Going to $2000. Again, that is $2000 gold. It discussed debt, annual physical gold production (or lack thereof – remember that gold production has been falling since 1996) and finished with this:

“You want to accumulate gold investments now, while prices are still relatively low. Sure, gold prices are at all-time highs, but they still have a long way to go…over $2,000…maybe as high as $3,000…or even $5,000!”

Amen to that. History often rhymes. Where will you be if it rhymes again? Call Lear Capital for a gold coin or gold coins (!) before history rhymes and sings to you!

When the Fed is out of bullets, or: “How Hyperiflation Will Happen” (Article)

Monday, September 13, 2010 by Eric Harding

Dartmouth educated novelist, producer and director of films Gonzalo Lira has lived in both Ecuador and Chile and knows hyperinflation first hand. This year, he began contributing economic analysis to a couple firms. He posted the following article about inflation fears and beyond. It is entitled “How Hyperinflation Will Happen”.

I view it as a must read. Read it here.

This, from the article: “In other words, Treasuries are now the New and Improved Toxic Asset.” He ends with this: “What is relevant is, the current situation cannot long continue. The Global Depression we are in is being exacerbated by the very measures being used to fix it—stimulus is putting pressure on Treasuries, which are being shored up by the Fed. This obviously cannot have a happy ending. Therefore, the smart money prepares for what it believes is going to happen next.”

Do you own smart money? Do you know American gold coin values? Are you familiar with annual gold production? A gold bull market? Sure, you maybe have heard there is one. Time to familiarize yourself with all these subjects. Time to understand how a gold coin is a real asset. Time to understand how a rare gold coin is a REALLY good asset. How numismatic silver can provide an inflation hedge. Call us at Lear Capital to explore this today!  

Demographics Anyone?

Wednesday, August 4, 2010 by Eric Harding

From an article entitled China Deregulates Gold Market:

"China said Tuesday it will further open its gold market and improve tax policies for investment in the precious metal. The People's Bank of China yesterday issued an industry guide to further develop its gold market. China is the fifth largest holder of gold in the world. China will allow more commercial banks to import and export the metal, the central bank said yesterday.

 

AND:

 

The central bank has asked the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange and commercial banks to engage more actively to develop a national gold market. China is steadily opening up its gold market, including setting up a bourse allowing individual to trade bullion and encouraging banks to offer gold investment products. The Shanghai Gold Exchange, China's sole bourse for gold and platinum, was set up in 2002, indicating the free trading of gold. Previously, the central bank set quotas.China holds 1,054 tons of gold reserves, following the United States, Germany, France and Italy. China's gold reserves account for less than 2 percent of its foreign exchange reserve.

The World Gold Council said earlier that China's consumer gold demand is set to double in tonnage over the next decade as the economy rises. In 2009, total consumer demand for gold in China grew 7 percent to 461.9 tons, worth more than US$14 billion, equal to 11 percent of global gold demand. Over the past five years, consumer demand for gold has risen at an average rate of 13 percent annually in China."

Read about it here. Wow! What a green light to invest in more physical gold! Get yours at Lear Capital !!


Lear Capital on Bernanke's Pro-Gold Strategy

Friday, July 23, 2010 by David Engstrom
Don't you hate it when you stress over the right answer to some dilemma, and then with a smack to the forehead, when you see the answer has been staring you in the face the whole time, you go . . . dah!  Of course!  I knew that!

Yesterday, per a recent NewsMax report, Ben Bernanke encouraged Congress to extend the Bush tax cuts rather than let them expire less than six months from now.

Bernanke said, “In the short term I would believe that we ought to maintain a reasonable degree of fiscal support, stimulus for the economy . . . There are many ways to do that. This is one way.”

It never made sense to me that you print money out of thin air, give it away and then vow to take it back by raising taxes.  Seems to me one cancels out the other.  Kind of like blowing up a balloon by blowing in then sucking air out of the balloon to blow in again. 

Justifying the intent by saying only the rich will get taxed isn't really adding up either.  Cap and trade, for example, is a bigger tax on the poor than it is the rich.  A National Sales Tax or Value Added Tax would affect the poor more than the rich as taxes paid are a greater percentage of earned income.  And here's a good one for you, as of now, beginning in 2013 the Health Care Reform Act includes a sales tax on real estate of 3.8%.

Pile all this on top of proposals that eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction and you get another tax that has a greater effect on the poor than it does the rich.

As I have said in previous writings, debt and deflation are a more volatile combination than nitro-glycerin.  Higher taxes on anyone is deflationary.  It was only a matter of time before we got the smack on the forehead from Ben Bernanke as the Fed's fear of deflation is real.

If Bernanke is successful in swimming upstream, against the wave of democratic resistance, then stimulus will once again become the order of the day with inflation waiting just around the corner.

All this is good for gold and perhaps one reason global gold demand remains strong.  With central banks still adding to gold reserves, gold supplies still constrained and gold production on the decline, it may be a good time to pick up a few gold coins in anticipation of Ben's Pro-Gold strategy.










Lear Capital Refudiates Claims of Declining Gold Demand

Tuesday, July 20, 2010 by David Engstrom
As I always do, I read multiple stories a day on the economy, the markets and gold.  This morning I ran across a Bloomberg report that claimed gold prices may decline with signs that economic recovery is stalling.

But before I go on, I must confess.  I have now made the same mistake the media has made and spelled "refudiate" wrong.  I mean if you are going to make an entire story out of a mis-spoken word, at least spell it right.  It's R-e-f-u-T-i-a-t-e with a "T" not a "D".  Surely, I jest!

Now to my point, wasn't a stalling economy the impetus behind skyrocketing global gold demand to begin with?  If we have learned anything, it is that a stalling economy precludes either stimulus or default.  So far the choices made have favored stimulus.

David Rosenberg is one of my favorite daily reads and he comments that gold has so much alure today because, "It is a reflection of investor concern over the monetary stability, and Ben Bernanke and other central bankers only have to step on the printing presses whereas gold miners have to drill over two miles into the ground (gold production is lower today than it was a decade ago; hardly the same can be said for fiat currency)."

He also points out that today, gold comprises "a mere 0.05% share of global household net worth, so small incremental allocations into bullion or gold-type investments can exert a dramatic impact. Gold cannot be printed by central banks and is a monetary metal that is no government’s liability."

That says to me, the current price of gold is an explosion waiting to happen.  Monetary stability we have not.  And supply?  In an assessment found on Commodity Online provided by Arnold Bock, we learn that at today's prices, the total value of above ground gold is $5 trillion.  Annual production adds a mere $73 billion to that total. 

If $5 trillion comprises a "mere .05% share of global household net worth," a move to just 1%, would either require supply to double (which it cannot) or the price to double.  And who says demand will stop there?  

If economic recovery is stalling, we need to ask, will the economy be allowed to deflate or will bailouts and stimulus, once gain, become the order of the day?  With evidence the Fed has an innate fear of deflation, (see article) I suspect another round of stimulus is on its way.  Perhaps the President's call yesterday for the extension of unemployment benefits, evidences a move back toward a stimulus-laden economy.

Don't get caught in the stampede to own gold coins after everyone else decides its time.  Gold as an investment is a viable diversification strategy.  Economic uncertainty is more likely to drive the gold charts higher.

And please, if you choose to refute (deny accuracy of) or repudiate (reject as untrue) any of my claims, make it a point to stay informed by making IBTimes.com or LearCapital.com your sources for today's gold news.  Then decide for yourself. 



Lear Capital On China's Golden Smoke Screen

Thursday, July 8, 2010 by David Engstrom
Once again, China's propaganda machine is cranking out another diversion.  While they would have the world believe Gold is nothing more than an after-thought with respect to its massive reserves, China's rhetoric isn't quite jiving with its actions.  

Per a July 7, 2010 Reuters release, China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a statement regarding its gold policy.

In short, the statement reiterated some age-old arguments against owning gold.  One being that because gold does not produce interest income other investments are better suited for holding within their massive reserve accounts.  Gold is also very volatile, subject to geopolitical events, currency fluctuations and speculation.  And finally, (I love this one) to own gold you must incur costs of shipping and storage. 

The statement did acknowledge that gold can be a good hedge against inflation but so can other investments.

These are the words but what are the actions and which speaks the loudest?

In 2004, China legalized gold ownership by its citizens, then openly encouraged all citizens to take a portion of each paycheck they receive and invest it in gold.  That's ironic.  We encourage our citizens to spend their paycheck on foreign goods to bolster the economy.  That definitely sounds like a contradiction of word and deed. 

I just heard our national savings rate is a negative .4%.  In contrast China's rate is 20%.  My don't we make a nice couple.  At this rate they may soon own all the gold.  And you know what they say about he who holds all the gold?

In April 2009, news finally surfaced that in the period between 2003 to then, China had secretly increased its gold reserves by 76%.  Why so secret?

Then, in an April 10, 2008 Mineweb report we began to learn about China's desire to own more of the world's gold production. 

"Industry research has confirmed that China's gold industry has overtaken the United States and South Africa. China is expected to consolidate its position this year as the world's largest gold producer. It is a dynamic industry in the world's most remarkable economy - in a period of high gold values and a dramatically depreciating US dollar."

Of course it's easy to say you are not in the market for gold when you intend to buy the mine.  If I owned a dairy cow I wouldn't have to buy milk anymore either.

Just as recently as June 7, 2010, we see evidence that China is indeed, on a mission to own gold production.  In a report out of Toronto, we read that, Canadian based Crystallex International Corporation entered into an agreement with China Railway Resources Group Co. Ltd. to mine gold in Venezuela. 

Then on June 24 in a press release by Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. owners of Kensington Gold Mine near Juneau Alaska, we read that China National Gold Group Corp. "will purchase half of the gold concentrates produced at the mine."

"The deal is the first of its kind between a state-owned corporation of the People's Republic of China and a U.S. precious metals mine."

Now you tell me, does that sound like a lackadaisical interest in gold to you? 

Somethin' ain't right!  Here in the U.S. our mint periodically runs out of gold, financial news talk does everything but tell people flat out not to own it and our government encourages us to borrow and spend.  

Meanwhile, China wants to control more supply and then instructs its citizens to save and invest some of every paycheck in gold.  Seems to me China gold demand is growing faster than ever, or at least as fast as we can borrow and spend.

You don't have to be a gold supply and demand scientist to see that if China continues to buy gold and we continue to borrow and spend, one of us is going to be deeply indebted to the other.  If I was you I would take China's cue on this one and grab a few gold coins before China grabs them all.  

For incredible online pricing of today's most popular gold coins, be sure to visit LearCapital.com


Will China Gold Demand Quadruple Gold Price?

Wednesday, June 2, 2010 by David Engstrom
It wasn't long ago that China Gold demand was dominating gold news stories.  Under cover of darkness they secretly doubled their gold reserves.  Then reports surfaced that they were encouraging their own citizens to buy gold.  Speculators and gold bugs began to froth a bit as the prospect of huge new demand from China contributed to the rise in gold prices.

Some said, China was intent on selling dollar assets to buy gold - that China was no longer interested in holding dollars in the face of our own credit crisis.  Others speculated that China would buy all the gold the IMF would sell and then some.  And still others, I among them, reported on China's encouragement of its citizens to own gold to protect against an uncertain global economic condition.

Then came a short stream of comments that shut us all up.  China expressed confidence in the dollar indicating they were not so concerned as to sell off any of their enormous dollar holdings.  With respect to gold, China almost expressed a disinterest, as though gold was good but not so good that it has to buy buy buy and do it quickly. 

I speculate now that China had no other choice than to play down their insatiable appetite for gold.  One false move of accumulating gold, per all the predictions of us experts, and the price of gold could rocket to the moon.  Such an act would greatly inhibit China's ability to accumulate gold at today's bargain prices, so a new strategy had to be implemented.

Here's my theory.  While China has not resorted to selling off dollar assets, many reports suggest they have quit buying them.  Reserves are still growing, just not dollar reserves. As compared to total reserves the percentage of reserves held in dollars is said to be shrinking. They have also stepped up their own gold production and to insure none of the gold they produce themselves leaves the country, they passed laws prohibiting its export.  And finally, their investment into gold mines around the world has stepped up.  Why buy the milk when you own your own cow?

Is China still buying gold on the open market when they get a chance?  We may not know until after the fact.  Is China trying to monopolize the world gold supply?  One report today suggests yes.  It even suggests China's actions could help drive gold to $5,000 an ounce.

Don't be surprised if more news of China's intent to corner the gold market begins to surface.  One thing is for certain.  Gold continues to edge higher but you get a sense that something big and dramatic is brewing out there. 

Again I say, don't buy gold to get rich.  Own gold as a hedge against inflation, uncertainty, unmanageable debt and as a preserver of wealth.  I'll be watching this closely just to give you one more reason to keep visiting.

 









Is COMEX About to Take One in the Silver Shorts?

Saturday, April 24, 2010 by David Engstrom
Of late, more is being said about the potential of silver prices to rocket skyward.  One reason - Demand!  It's said to be rising as silver has a myriad of industrial uses.  You will be surprised at some of those uses but once you understand them it does become quite easy to see why silver demand is exploding.  Here's just a few of those specialty industrial uses you may not be familiar with.
    • RFID tags for stock control and ID cards are "taking over from bar codes";
    • Solar panels - forecast to grow by 20-40 times in 10 years;
    • Wood preservatives to replace arsenic;
    • Wound care & other medical use, food hygiene, and anti-odor textiles - because silver, a biocide, inhibits bacteria.
If demand is the Ying then what's the Yang in this equation?  Supply of course.  According to Jeff Clark, Senior Editor of Casey's Gold and Resource Report, 1Q sales by the U.S. Mint (of American Eagle Silver Coins) hit record highs with 9,023,500 coins sold, the highest volume since the coin was introduced in 1986.  According to Clark, that kind of volume is creating a potentially explosive situation as U.S. Mint sales are now approaching parity with annual domestic production of 40 million ounces.   

According to Clark, "This is especially explosive when you consider that roughly 40% of all silver is used for industrial applications, 30% for jewelry, 20% for photography and other uses, and only 5% or so for coins and medals."  If we develop a dependency on foreign silver as we have on foreign oil, watch out!  Prices could really take off.

So now we have the Ying, we have the Yang let's throw in the Bang!  Spot silver prices today, just like spot gold prices, are determined by the price futures contracts trade at on the COMEX.  This is referred to as paper silver.  Millions of ounces of silver are traded on the Comex every month.  It is presumed that there is balance.  If there is a contract to buy 1000 ounces in 2 months, there is 1000 ounces that someone is willing to sell under contract terms agreed to.

This is where it gets a little interesting.  Some say there is really only one ounce out of a hundred in physical existence.  So what happens when the person buying wants to take delivery of a thousand ounces when there is only ten to deliver?  Yup!  That's the BANG!  This is what some claim the situation to be right now on the COMEX.  So, I looked into it a little and found a report put out by the National Inflation Association.

According to this report, "We don't believe there is only 1 oz of physical silver for every 100 ozs. represented on paper. Most likely, there is 1 to 3 times more paper silver than physical silver. This is still a major problem that will ultimately result in a major silver shortage and short squeeze, once a large number of COMEX holders begin to demand physical delivery of silver."

Where could the silver price go?  Some say to match it's inflation adjusted high, silver would have to trade above $130 an ounce.  So, next time you examine your Precious Metals portfolio or your Gold IRA, consider adding a little silver to the stash.  Silver demand is rising right along with gold demand.  Both silver and gold have a history of being real money and both silver and gold are recognized as a hedge against inflation.  If the COMEX has to take one in the Silver Shorts, because one large transaction exposes lack of physical inventory.  Bang!

But don't take my word for it.  Recall recent reports where the U.S. Mint has announced shortages of both American Eagle Silver Coins as well as American Eagle Gold Coins.  



   


Silver Demand Rises, Price Follows

Monday, April 12, 2010 by David Engstrom
Silver is capturing more and more headlines as record demand sends the spot price skyward.  Since early February, silver is up about 20%, outpacing a coinciding rise in gold by nearly double.

According to Jeff Clark, Senior Editor of Casey's Gold and Resource Report, 1Q sales by the U.S. Mint hit record highs with 9,023,500 coins sold, the highest volume since the coin was introduced in 1986.  According to Clark, that kind of volume is creating a potentially explosive situation as U.S. Mint sales are now approaching parity with annual domestic production of 40 million ounces.    

According to Clark, "This is especially explosive when you consider that roughly 40% of all silver is used for industrial applications, 30% for jewelry, 20% for photography and other uses, and only 5% or so for coins and medals."  If we develop a dependency on foreign silver as we have on foreign oil, watch out!  Prices could really take off.

Clark theorizes that silver's rise in demand can be attributed to more people seeking the same kind of protection gold provides against inflation, loss of buying power and economic uncertainty, in general.  Let's face it!  There are more people who can afford to add a few $20 coins to their retirement account than there are people who can add $1200 coins.  It only stands to reason then, that the greater the fear becomes of hyperinflation, the more people there are that will try to hedge their retirement accounts against it. 

If gold is an inflation hedge, so is silver.  The only difference is, right now you can buy $100 worth of silver and feel like you have a pocketful of protection.  Does this mean gold demand will whither?  Don't count on it.  Both gold coins and coins like the American Silver Eagle Coin are poised for explosive moves and neither has ever been worth zero.        

Do your duty - become your own central banker

Friday, March 19, 2010 by Eric Harding

Agora’s 5 Minute Forecast – they watch gold purchase of central banks very closely – this is what they found and said in today's 5 Minute Forecast:

"Last year, central banks were net buyers of gold for the first time since 1988. In fact, they bought the most gold in any year since 1964. Total central bank holdings worldwide, according to the World Gold Council, grew by 425 metric tons last year.

AND:

 

China, India, and Russia all added to their reserves last year.

 

The reasoning they give:

 

And it fits into a bigger picture -- growing distrust of the world’s reserve currency."


Let's look at the facts: annual gold production is falling. Gold price predictions show the metal moving higher. Give us a call and ask the question: How to Buy Gold !  

Another fiat currency into the dustbin of history?

Monday, February 15, 2010 by Eric Harding
Folks, history shows that they just don't work. Paper currencies without gold backing eventually find their way into the garbage. Do your own study on this! Chuck Butler of Everbank sent out a special of The Daily Pfennig last night (Valentines Day) because of the problems he sees with the Euro: 

 

 

"Here we are on Valentine's Day 2010... And once again the calls for a collapse of the euro are being heard. This time because of Greece...

 

Now, you all have read what I've had to say about this hit to the euro because of Greece... I find it to be unwarranted... But, in a conversation with good friend, David Galland, yesterday, he mentioned something that has me concerned now... When I mentioned to David that Greece was but 2% of the total GDP for the Eurozone. He responded by saying that the Asian Crisis of 1998 was triggered by the debt problems of Thailand, and their debt problems were a smaller percentage of the total Asian GDP than Greece's is now...

 

WOW! I thought... I think I'm going to have to change horses in the middle of the stream, here... But, I'm torn between these two thoughts: 1. the euro is going to experience major problems and lose a large chunk of value... Or 2. the euro will take its hits, and come back even stronger, just like it has 3 times before...

 

The point I'm making here folks, is simply that I wanted to get this info to you as I was thinking about it... If you are a euro holder, it's your decision if you take thought number 1 or 2... I just wanted to make you aware of what's going on, and this needed a Pfennig of its own.

 

And... To say that should you feel that you need to move, think about the ultimate euro alternative, Norway... Or... Like I said last week, with the two largest GDP countries are having problems (eurozone and U.S.) then maybe it's time to go for the Gold!"

Did you here that folks? Go for the gold! Gold as investment at this time makes sense - it just does! Gold predictions are heading higher. As a reminder, annual gold production is not keeping up with gold demand - there is your cue!

A spending freeze? Let's look at reality!

Thursday, January 28, 2010 by Eric Harding
You know - I like to wake up to that hot cup of coffee reality. Chuck Butler of Everbank did it for me again today. Here's what he said in his review of foreign currencies and the gold and silver market in his Daily Pfennig:

"You know... I did some more research into the President's proposed "spending freeze", which I believe is nothing more than rearranging of the deck chairs on the Titanic... They've increased their deficit spending by such a large percentage in the past year, that "freezing" it here, doesn't account for a hill of beans! Defense, Medicare, and Social Security aren't a part of the "freeze"... And they are the 3 biggest hits to the budget! So... In the end... This "freeze" accounts for about $250 Billion over 10 years... That's chump change folks...

 

Over that same period, some $9 Trillion is expected to be added to the government's debt pile. Which is to say the "freeze" will reduce the total deficit spending anticipated over the next decade by some 0.027%.

 

Don't get me wrong here, I'm glad it won't keep going higher... But, it certainly isn't getting "cut"... And that's what we need to hear, not all this sex, lies and videotape about a "spending freeze"!"

Ha! Tell it like it is Chuck! He also added today that he feels both gold and silver are on a blue light special! Remember that annual gold production is falling - it's all about supply and demand!

Gold Bull Market Hardly Started

Friday, January 15, 2010 by David Engstrom
I was reading an article the other day by Neil Charnock who says the Gold Bull Market has hardly begun.  He comments that gold prices will remain driven in part by crises in various currencies, but that at some point gold coin prices will disconnect, at least in part, from currencies and rise due to other factors.

Gold demand dynamics is one of those other factors.  He says gold demand from "those in the know" will continue to drive demand.

We also know from numerous reports, that central banks have become net buyers of gold instead of sellers.  This puts pressure on the gold supply causing now the impetus of gold demand on the gold price to have a potentially exponential effect. 

Consider this; For nine years central banks have been huge sellers of gold.  In the face of dwindling annual gold production, this selling, inhibited the rise in gold prices.  Yet, gold prices rose nonetheless - nearly 400% in 10 years.  Now, as production continues to wane, and central banks become buyers of the very gold they sold, gold demand is going to get hit with a double whammy.  Ask yourself this.  If gold prices have risen 400% in 10 years with Central banks as huge sellers nearly the entire time, how much higher can gold prices go when those same banks become huge buyers?

These are just some of the reasons analysts like Neil Charnock say the gold bull market has hardly started.  It could be a great time to add a few new gold coins to your stash.